Weekly Immigration Update: NOM Decline, the 70/30 Permanent Visa Split, and Growing Concerns for Offshore Applicants

Executive Summary

The latest Net Overseas Migration (NOM) data confirms a continued downward trend, with the federal government pivoting decisively to a 70/30 onshore-offshore allocation for the permanent migration programme. This week’s analysis examines what these structural changes mean for offshore applicants facing potential four-to-five-year waits, the mounting partner visa backlog, and the significant legal questions raised about compliance with the Migration Act 1958.

Introduction

This week has delivered some of the most consequential immigration policy signals in recent memory. The NOM has continued its steady decline, the government has formalised a major reshuffle of how permanent visa places are allocated, and serious legal concerns have emerged regarding the effective capping of partner visa grants. Australian Immigration Agency specialists break down what these developments mean for migrants, sponsors, and Australian families awaiting reunification.

Net Overseas Migration Continues Its Downward Trajectory

The most recent NOM figure stands at 303,000, slightly better than market expectations, yet representing a substantial reduction from the post-pandemic peak. It is worth noting that the Australian Bureau of Statistics has consistently warned that NOM is not the most appropriate measure for migration policy development, as it also captures Australians departing for long-term overseas residence, not solely incoming migrants.

Key trends emerging from the data include:

• Temporary visa holder NOM has fallen 10% over the year and now sits at less than half the 2023 peak
• International student NOM is down 10% and has returned to pre-COVID levels
• Visitor NOM continues to decline, reflecting deliberate policy changes to reduce “visa hopping”
• Working holiday maker departures are increasing as post-pandemic cohorts complete their stays and move on

The 70/30 Onshore-Offshore Split: A Structural Reshuffle

The most significant policy announcement this week is the government’s confirmation that 70% of the permanent migration programme will now be allocated to applicants already onshore in Australia, with the remaining 30% reserved for offshore applicants.

Impact on Offshore Applicants

Immigration experts warn that offshore applicants, particularly those in the family migration stream and skilled visa applicants in occupations not prioritised under Ministerial Direction 105, face extended waiting times of potentially four to five years. The Department of Home Affairs’ published processing times are expected to become increasingly unreliable under this new framework, as the traditional queue-based system has been effectively abandoned in favour of prioritisation based on location.

Government Justification

The Minister for Immigration has acknowledged that this shift will generate complaints from sponsors and employers who had arranged for partners, family members, or workers to come from overseas. The government frames the change as necessary to align immigration numbers with housing supply, arguing that prioritising onshore grants alleviates broader economic pressures.

Partner Visa Concerns: Legal Questions Mount

Of greatest concern this week are revelations regarding the government’s approach to partner visa processing. The current partner visa backlog stands at approximately 115,000 applications, with an additional 60,000+ anticipated in the 2026-27 financial year.

The Statutory Framework

Sections 86 and 87 of the Migration Act 1958 establish a critical distinction:

• Section 86 permits the government to determine maximum grant numbers for visa classes each financial year
• Section 87 explicitly exempts partner and dependent child visa applicants from these caps, providing that no maximum number “prevents the grant of a visa to a person who applies for it on the ground that he or she is the spouse, de facto partner, or dependent child of an Australian citizen or permanent visa holder”

Despite these statutory protections, the government appears to be effectively capping partner visa grants through resource allocation and planning decisions, a practice that raises fundamental questions about compliance with the Migration Act.

The Housing Argument Examined

The government has linked immigration policy to housing availability, suggesting that reducing onshore grants eases population pressure. However, immigration specialists note that the vast majority of partner visa sponsors are already settled in Australia, with established employment and accommodation. Restricting partner visa grants does not meaningfully address housing supply; it simply keeps Australian families separated indefinitely. The connection between housing policy and family reunification is, at best, tenuous.

What This Means for Applicants

For offshore skilled visa applicants outside priority occupations, this policy shift signals a difficult road ahead. Processing delays of four to five years may become standard, affecting career trajectories, family decisions, and long-term settlement prospects.

For partner visa applicants, the situation is particularly concerning. The government’s approach appears to be in direct tension with the protections afforded by Section 87 of the Migration Act. The principle that governments cannot selectively choose which laws to follow is fundamental to the integrity of the migration system, and visa applicants are held to that same standard. Australian Immigration Agency strongly encourages affected applicants to seek professional advice on their available options.

Key Takeaways

• The NOM has dropped to 303,000, now less than half the 2023 post-pandemic peak
• 70% of permanent visas will be allocated to onshore applicants, significantly disadvantaging offshore applicants
• Offshore applicants face potential four-to-five-year waits, particularly in family migration and non-priority skilled occupations
• The effective capping of partner visas raises serious legal questions about compliance with Section 87 of the Migration Act
• Published processing times will become increasingly unreliable under the new onshore-prioritisation framework

Need Expert Guidance?

Navigating these complex and rapidly evolving changes requires authoritative professional insight. Australian Immigration Agency offers comprehensive consultation services to help individuals, families, and employers understand their options under the current migration landscape. Whether you are an offshore applicant facing extended delays, a sponsor concerned about family reunification, or an employer seeking skilled workers, our team is here to provide the clarity and advocacy you need. Book a consultation today to discuss your specific circumstances.